Sunday, August 3, 2008

Obama and down-ballot Texas races

There is a strong desire by the Democrats to win 5 more Texas state House seats and get control back. Can they do it? Liberal bloggers on the key down-ballot races show where their hopes and fears are in the state House and Senate. And what's not to love about this analysis:

HD 96: Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, is challenged by Democrat Chris Turner of Burleson. Upset possible. Hard-right district represented by hard-right representative. Not even an Obama landslide can pry this one from Zedler's cold, almost-dead fingers
UPDATE: Link to Houston Chronicle's analysis. The races they consider in play:
  • GOP held Texas Senate seats: SD-10 (Brimer), SD-11 (Jackson), SD-17 (open seat from retiring Kyle Janek)
  • GOP-held open Texas House seats: HD-52 (Bryan Daniel (R) v Maldonado (D)), HD-78 (Dee Margo (R) v Joseph Moody (D)), HD-101 (Mike Anderson (R) v Robert Miklos (D)), HD-144 ( Ken Legler (R) v Joel Redmond (D))
  • GOP incumbents at risk: HD-96 (Bill Zedler), HD-102 ( Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas), HD-129 (John Davis), HD-133 (Murphy R-Houston)
  • Possible GOP pickups they mention: HD-17, open seat, Tim Kleinschmidt (R) v Donnie Dippel (D); HD-32 former state Rep. Todd Hunter (R) challenging Rep. Juan Garcia (D); HD-97, Mark Shelton (R) v Dan Barrett (D); Republican Gregory Meyers challenging Rep. Hubert Vo, D-Houston. They also note: "Reps. Mark Homer of Paris, Chuck Hopson of Jacksonville and Jim McReynolds of Lufkin are targets each election because their rural districts are Republican."
The liberal blog 'brainsandeggs' counted Garcia, Barrett and Vo as losers to Republican challenges, predicts the Democrats win all three of the Senate districts at risk, considers HD-17 'as close as they come', and of the 8 GOP races, says the GOP wins 5 and Dems 3: HD-52, HD-129 (Davis), and HD-144.

It adds up to the fact that one of the hottest races is in our neck of the woods: HD-52.


Randy A. Samuelson said...

That all depends on the grassroots conservatives getting out to support Zedler. His race two years ago was too close for comfort.

Anonymous said...

My current assumption/belief is that 2008 won't be as bad for Republican turnout as 2006 was. Where we will lose will be where we have a weak candidate, fundraising disadvantage and/or incumbent who's asleep at the wheel.

Randy A. Samuelson said...

I don't think there are any incumbents asleep this year. It all depends on the down-ballot Republicans galvanizing their message and making a pledge to uphold their conservative values.