Saturday, May 9, 2009

Media Primps Nearly Bleak U.S. Jobs Report

The media reported a lower than expected jobs claim number as 'sign of life in the economy' - Wash Post: In Poor Jobs Numbers, Signs of Improvement:

Was this an example of media helpin Obama out by looking for silver linings? We are not moving in the right direction, we are just slowing in the wrong direction. We are told - "suggests that the chances of a Great Depression-style economic catastrophe have become more remote than they seemed just two months ago". The chances of the Great Depression are not lessened; rather, hyping up the odds of the Great Depression was used by powers-that-be so that the they wouldn't "waste a crisis." In fact, the consensus economist forecast was for recovery by Q3, and it seems to be on track.

Any upbeat discussion on the unemployment numbers misses the forest for the trees:

“The U.S. economy has lost almost 4 million jobs since Obama was elected.”

Unemployment is considered a trailing indicator, new claims a coincident indicator. As for leading indicators, one of them is the stock market, and it has rebounded. The Fed liquidity operation is pumping up money supply and the results are predictable. We will struggle out of recession in the second half, if you go by the market correlation that shows that recessions usually end about 6 months after market bottoms ... and early March looks to be the market bottom.

What happens after the recession ends? Lingering non-growth or real recovery? Will jobs comes back? Veeerrry slooowly in the Obama economy - why add jobs when everything Obama is doing will make those jobs a bigger headache? Legislationg more union power, employer health insurance mandates, cap-and-trade energy taxes, ... oh and ‘closing tax loopholes’ to rasie more tax money, aka HIGHER TAXES. While we may soon be saying "the worst is over" for this recession, we will also be saying: "The U.S. economy has lost almost 4 million jobs since Obama was elected, ... and it will be a long time before we get them back."

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