Wednesday, September 2, 2009

The Conservative Minority Vote

Reagan Democrats - the elusive Jackelope are not enough to build a Republican majority coalition.

"If it’s right that white conservative Republicans make up 23% of the population and that white conservative Democrats make up another 6%, things do not look promising for advocates of an all-conservative electoral strategy."

If this is the same poll or related to poll that finds that 40% of voters are conservative?

Is that true? And would no a corrolary of those two statistics be that 10% of the electorate are CONSERVATIVE MINORITIES? That would be Asian, hispanic, and black. If so, we have a huge insight on the simple dynamic of more conservatives than Republicans, but more Democrats than liberals.

Minority voters, for a variety of reasons, are locked into voting Democrat in larger numbers than their ideology would suggest. That's why McCain lost California, while minority voters delivered a pro-traditional-marriage vote along with their Obama vote.

If so, wouldn't the path to political success for the GOP be simple? Just figure out how to win the CONSERVATIVE MINORITY VOTE, and the party ID disadvantage would be partially erased.


SG said...

Interesting, I just wrote an article yesterday called: "Dr. Phil to RNC: How's That Working For You?"

The RNC is out of touch with both Republicans and Independents. Unlike popular thought, Independents are not moderates. 58% of Independents think Republicans should stick to their values.

Right now the RNC has no coherent message. There isn't a clear leader in the RNC. McCain was a failure because he didn't inspire people. He looked like a moderate Democrat with a "R" by his name.

Conservatives need a leader who is truly committed to fiscal responsibility and small government. The current crowd is really lost on those two points.

I'll be writing an article in the next day that talks about the fallacy of the RNC approach to the Public Option in the health care debate.

Randy A. Samuelson said...

Barack Obama won because he cast a vision and kept a positive appearance during the campaign. This charmed voters. Couple that with Americans who were tired of Bush and you have a liberal victory. Obama was campaigning against Bush the entire time...McCain was just an after-thought for most people.

The way to win has always been to develop a positive vision and stay on that message. It worked for Bush as Governor in 1994 and President in 2000. It worked for Reagan in 1980. It worked for JFK in 1960. It worked for down-ballot candidates all over the state and nation.

As Republicans, we need to figure out what we stand for, not against, and we need to determine the best solutions for the common problems based on our core principles of limited government, individual responsibility, and free market principles.

SG said...

Randy - very well stated!

Anonymous said...

"Unlike popular thought, Independents are not moderates"
I tend to agree, but I would like data on that.
For example, the poll shows 6% conservative Democrats, how many 'conservative independents' and when someone self-identifies as that, what are their core values?

What I would like to see are the *9* categories of folks and how they break down demographically:
Republican - Independent - Democrat
Conservative - Moderate -Liberal

BTW, Well said Randy.

SG said...

FT- I love you man!! Great question that I wish more would ask. Where's your data?

My data is from a Rasmussen Report that says 58% of independents would like Republicans to stick to their values as opposed to work w/ Obama.

The Rasmussen report only breaks it into 3 groups. Democrats, Republicans & unaffiliated. I don't have the link to the report handy, but you can find it on my blog.

Again, great question!!