Lyle Larson vs the PAC-man for TX CD-23

Lyle Larson is running in CD-23 against Ciro Rodriguez. He raised over half a million dollars since January, a respectable amount, but quite a bit less than Ciro. On the other hand, the Larson campaign notes that they raised over 90% from local individual constributors, while Rodriguez is taking most of his money from out-of-state PACs.
Who's more likley to represent the district in that case?
Larson campaign press release on campaign funding.

Larson also notes that Rep Rodriguez is using taxpayer money for campaign-oriented communications to voters. I get annoyed by such sleazy behavior by incumbents, and would note parenthetically that this sleazy practice of taxpayer funded 'info mailings' for campaign purposed is used to a 'T' by our local State Rep Mark Strama. It's an outrage! Time for the voters to fire these PAC-men.