Early start on the race to the White House

The essay below is an expanded version of the Taipei Times editorial of the same name. I have posted it to The Travis Monitor with permission of the author, Li Thian-hok. Perhaps it is a nice distraction from the "Amnesty for Illegals" debacle that currently has us all in a funk.

DISCLAIMER: Although conservative Republicans, including this conservative Republican, will not agree with the author's analysis of the US Presidential race (he uses a few Democratic talking points) and on the total absence of the mention of the "Amnesty for Illegals" issue that is so opposed by the American people and is primarily why the President's polls numbers are so low, the bottom third of the essay is what I wanted to bring to the attention of the Travis Monitor blog community.

I apologize in advance for the length but I had to post it in toto because you can't find it posted anywhere else and the author would have it no other way.

Early start on the race to the White House
By Li Thian-hok

The ongoing US race for the White House is different in some respects. A new political calendar means earlier primaries. Nevada's caucus is now scheduled just after the Iowa caucus and ahead of the New Hampshire primary. Many other states are planning to move their primary forward so that they have a larger impact on the choice of the candidate. As of mid-March, eight states have moved their primary elections to February 5, 2008, including California and New Jersey. Fourteen other states, including Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas are proposing to move their primaries to the same date. So some fifty percent of the delegates could be chosen by February 5, narrowing the field down to a few strong candidates.

There are large numbers of declared or assumed candidates in both parties. Their main efforts now are fund raising and assembling a competent campaign staff. Because of the large amount of money required to run a serious campaign, some fringe candidates are expected to withdraw early. Others may stumble by saying the wrong thing or failing to ignite support among the voters.

According to an average of seven national polls in February of likely Republican voters, former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani led with 40%, followed by 22% for Arizona Senator John McCain, 11% for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and 7% for former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney. Gingrich is taking a wait and see stance and won't be a factor unless the front-runners falter. Romney is capable but his Mormon religion could be a handicap. Giuliani has a good record as prosecutor and Mayor of New York, and performed well in the aftermath of 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center but his three marriages and business dealings could be questioned. McCain is still regarded as the front-runner by some pundits because of his campaign team and his experience in Congress and the military, but his strong support for the Iraq war goes against voter sentiment. At 70, his age could also be a negative factor.

Other Republican hopefuls include Senators Sam Brownback of Kansas and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Representatives Tom Tancredo of Colorado and Duncan Hunter of California, former Governor of Wisconsin Tommy Thompson, and former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee.

There are also many contenders on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton, former first lady and now Senator from New York, has a substantial lead over her Democratic rivals. According to a recent Washington Post/ABC News survey, 36% of Democrats support Clinton, 24% back Illinois Senator Barack Obama, 14% support the party's 2000 nominee Al Gore and 12% endorse John Edwards, the party's vice presidential nominee in 2004. Clinton's advantages include name recognition, fund raising prowess and an image of intelligence. Possible liabilities are the perception that she is polarizing, may not be electable due in part to "Clinton fatigue," her relatively poor oratory skill, and her consistent support of the Iraq war, although she has been adjusting her stand on how and when US forces may be withdrawn from Iraq.

Obama is an attractive fresh face. He is articulate and comes across as someone genuinely committed to doing good for the country. The son of a Kenyan father and a Caucasian mother, he was raised in Hawaii and Indonesia and went to Columbia University and Harvard Law School. Obama is an excellent speaker and author of two best-selling books. He could siphon off considerable support of Black Americans from the Clinton camp. He also objected to the Iraq war when it was politically risky to do so. His demonstrated fund raising ability also makes him a credible contender. The concern is his lack of experience. He has been in the US Senate for only two years.

Edwards has cultivated good relations with the workers unions across the country. He is deeply committed to eliminating poverty and he has traveled extensively overseas since 2004 to broaden his horizons. He is talented and is already developing policy proposals such as a comprehensive healthcare coverage plan. He could be a viable contender, depending on the progress of the Iraq war, the state of the economy and other unforeseen developments. On March 22, John Edwards announced in a press conference that his wife Elizabeth's cancer has returned, but the campaign will continue.

The second tier Democratic candidates could include New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Al Gore, Senators Joe Biden of Delaware and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, and Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio.

The polls cited above may not be reliable since at this early stage the results reflect primarily name recognition. As the long campaign progresses, voter preferences will undoubtedly shift. A new poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times from February 13 to 26 of 313 members of the Democratic National Committee and 133 members of the Republican National Committee shows quite different results, as follows. Among Democrats: Senator Hillary Clinton 20%, former Senator John Edwards 15%, Senator Barack Obama 11%, former Vice President Al Gore 10%, Governor Bill Richardson 9%, other candidates 6%, don't know/haven't heard 29%. Among Republicans: former Governor Mitt Romney 20%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani 14%, Senator John McCain 10%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich 8%, other candidates 12%, don't know/haven't heard 36%. Since the DNC and RNC members are delegates to the national nominating conventions, key organizers and opinion leaders, this insider poll provides a possibly more accurate reading of each candidate's party support.

Because of the Iraq fiasco and numerous scandals under the Bush administration, such as the Katrina relief failure, the perjury conviction of Vice President Dick Cheney's former chief of staff Scooter Libby, the callous treatment of wounded soldiers at Walter Reed Medical Center, and the newly emerging controversy about the politically motivated firing of eight US attorneys by the Justice Department, there is a desire among independent voters to kick the rascals out. This inclination for change will favor the Democratic nominee.

This is not good news for Taiwan since Democrats tend to see China as an economic challenge rather than as a military threat. However, Taiwan's strategic value as an example of democracy for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and as a bastion against the PRC's expansionist ambitions will dictate US policy no matter which party wins the White House. The next US President will undoubtedly inherit the thorny problems of the Middle East and will have little time or energy to pay attention to developments in Taiwan.

Concerns about Taiwan's future have prompted many Taiwanese Americans (TA) and TA organizations to lobby the US government to ensure Taiwan's survival as a democratic state free from China's control. Such efforts have concentrated on the US Congress. In reality, foreign policy is initiated and implemented by the President with support from the National Security Council, the State Department, the Pentagon and other executive agencies. The congressional role to advise and consent is secondary. Whoever wins the race to the White House will have the greatest say about US policy towards Taiwan, China and East Asia in general. So it is important to pay attention to the ongoing presidential election, even though the first primary is ten months away.

Taiwanese Americans need to monitor the evolving Presidential race and try to approach the campaign staffs of the major contenders in each party even though policy formulation is not the immediate concern of the candidates. Once the candidates are nominated by their party convention, it would be much more difficult to approach their foreign policy aides. The objective is to provide useful information regarding US policy towards Taiwan, China and East Asia, from the perspective of American citizens interested in advancing US interest in the Western Pacific region. Such efforts could conceivably influence the drafting of party platforms in the summer of 2008. Another goal is to help to prevent the emergence of policy positions which are detrimental to the interest of both the US and Taiwan such as John Kerry's advocacy of One Country Two Systems for Taiwan's future in 2004.

Taiwan will have a new President in May 2008. The new administration will need to maintain solid relations with the Bush administration while keeping a watchful eye on the US presidential election, the outcome of which will be known in November 2008 and the new President inaugurated in January 2009. The distraction of the protracted presidential race in the US means that Taiwan should be vigilant in bolstering its national defense and economic security in order to safeguard the nation's hard-won freedom.

Copyright 4/14/07 by Li Thian-hok, All Rights Reserved