Saturday, July 18, 2009

Predictions for 2010

I usually don't make predictions, but here are some fearless predictions:

1. The observation that Gov Perry has 13,000 twitter followers while Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is not even on twitter is one of many reasons to think Governor Perry will be a survivor. He's fighting like one. KBH is fighting like its still 1993. Big mistake. Governor Rick Perry will defeat KBH in the Republican primary.

2. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison will see the writing on the wall by December so she will NOT decide to vacate her senate seat, but play it safe. Lose the primary means she will ride it out until 2012, and no Senate race after all and a more boring 2010 election cycle. Dewhurst and Abbott will stay put. The Republicans will have an incumbent slate and sweep the board at the Texas state level, enjoying a bounce from 2008 as the Democrats nationally take a beating with voter Obama fatigue.

UPDATE: 8/1/09 - Crystal ball already broken on this item. KBH has announced she will vacate her US Senate seat later this year.

3. The tax-and-spend-and-regulate liberal Democrats can't help it. Doing the same thing they did in 1993-1994 and 1965-1966, they raised taxes, added huge new spending programs, and forced onerous regulations. Obama's poll ratings will be in low 40s by mid 2010. Unemployment will stay above 9% through mid 2010. Bad news for Democrats.

4. Nationally, the Republicans will make big gains in House seats, winning back over 30 seats, but missing the goal of deposing Pelosi as speaker. Likewise in the US Senate, strong gains, including Harry Reid losing his re-election, but not enough for a Republican majority. One of the defeated incumbents will be liberal Democrat Congressman Chet Edwards, finally washed out by his conservative constituents in a tide of rejection of the left-liberal Pelosi Congress. Senator Ogden will defeat him, and Dan Gattis will be a new State Senator replacing Ogden.

5. Kirk Watson will run for statewide office. The smart choice for a post is Lt Governor, where the power is. It will set off a race locally, 3-way for the SD-14 slot - Strama, Naishtat, Rodriguez. Local Dems know Naishtat is "furniture" but Rodriguez is light on fundraising, so will bow out of contention and up-and-comer Mark Strama will get the nod.

6. Local Democrats will take the Travis County Republicans for granted. To their chagrin.

7. There will be major corruption scandals in the Democrat party at the national level. The news media will cover it up. (Wait, that's not a prediction; that happens on a regular basis.)

Expect the unexpected. Some variation of the above will or will not happen.


Anonymous said...

Don't underestimate Eddie Rodriguez. Strama has statewide and Congressional ambitions, which means he stays put until 2012. That leaves Rodriguez and possibly Will Wynn as Democrat hopefuls for a State Senate run.

Watson's decision will affect lots of the Travis County down-ballot races.

Incidentally, here is a great YouTube of Kirk Watson:

Anonymous said...

I saw Rodriguez' cash on hand. Pretty pathetic. Wont count him out but I had to make a call - I think Strama could pull it out.

Joel said...

#1 is incorrect