Global Warming on Ice

I previously speculated that the current global cool temperatures might be something more than a cold winter. Well, NASA's Earths Observatory has confirmed that we are in a cool PDO phase. PDO is the pacific Decadal Oscillation that is tied to solar cycles and El Ninos. This may lead to multi-decade shift to coooler weather and raises questions about IPCC estimates of man-made global warming (the estimates that people use to tell us we have to do something drastic or the ice caps will melt) that are increasingly out-of-step with reality.

A paper in the science journal "Nature" looks at the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and predicts a cool trend for the next 10 years. Motl reacts. There is evidence that AMO (also called NAO) is also tied to solar variability forcing factors including solar cycles.

New York Times calls it "Cooling in a Warming World" - that takes the oxymoronic cake! Are we warming? This future cooling phase extends a non-warming period that is now 9 years long. David Whitehouse, former online science editor for the BBC, Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society said it this way last December:

“For the past decade the world has not warmed. Global warming has stopped. It’s not a viewpoint or a sceptic’s inaccuracy. It’s an observational fact. Clearly the world of the past 30 years is warmer than the previous decades and there is abundant evidence (in the northern hemisphere at least) that the world is responding to those elevated temperatures. But the evidence shows that global warming as such has ceased.

We now have a decade of level and declining temperatures: SSTs, land surface, deep ocean and above all lower troposphere, have all flat-lined. There is no global warming, and people will start asking: why policies to deal with something that is not happening? It disabuses people of the alarmist notion that every jot and tittle in the climate lately have been due to man. Nature (sun spots), not man, is in charge. This comment is quite relevent:

"The first hypothesis is that climate naturally and constantly has changed through Earth’s history, growing both warmer and cooler, and at many rates and scales. This hypothesis is supported by recorded human history and all paleoclimate evidence, and confirms that natural climate changes are the rule, not the exception. That hypothesis is now established theory. IT IS INCUMBENT ON THE GEOSCIENCE PROFESSION TO BETTER COMMUNICATE THIS FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE."