Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Democratic nomination update

What a Joke - Al Franken is likely Democratic candidate in Minnesota. Al Franken is a former comedian turned light-weight pugilist, both physical and political ( personal attacks a specialty).

Delegate math - this Forbes calculator shows how the delegates for the Democratic nomination are allocated and lets you construct scenarios. Result? Even if Clinton wins every upcoming state
except for North Carolina, Oregon and Mississippi, i.e., Clinton wins Pennsylvania and 5 other states and Guam and Puerto Rico, she'll need at least 60% of the remaining super-delegates to win. The more likely scenario of Obama winning the caucus and western states, as he has done in the past, leads to an Obama victory even if he only gets 35% of the remaining super-delegates. And all this assumes a 57% to 43% win for Clinton in Pennsylvania. The only thing that saves her is a sweep of the super-delegates.

She will fight it out until its mathematically impossible. By June, it will be time to sing the Munchkin song.
but then we have to face the spectre of Obama's first 100 days - "it is a bad sign for a candidate when the best we can hope is for him to violate his commitments."

Geraldine Ferraro's comment to the Daily Breeze of Torrance, Calif.: "If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. ... He happens to be very lucky to be who he is." Once again proving, a gaffe is when a politician is caught accidentally telling the truth.

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