Big Un-Bombshell: KBH to hold on Senate Seat

Hutchison to keep Senate seat in bid for governor, aide says: "She will announce tomorrow at the Texas Federation of Republican Women's Convention in Galveston that she will not be resigning her seat before the primary,"

You heard it here first, probably even before Sen Hutchison came to that conclusion -My fearless prediction back in July was: "Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison will see the writing on the wall by December so she will NOT decide to vacate her senate seat, but play it safe. Lose the primary means she will ride it out until 2012, and no Senate race after all and a more boring 2010 election cycle."

The 'play it safe' route wasn't her game plan, and my own update blogged a retraction based on her own comments. But Senator Hutchison has been caught in the vice of a delayed ObamaCare vote, where it is vital for her to be there to help stop the ObamaCare train wreck, and polling that shows Perry with an 11 point lead, enough lead, especially among the conservative part of the base, to indicate that he will likely be the nominee. Conservatives prefer Perry, who's been more out front and forceful in jumping on populist Tea Party sentiment, and has tagged KBH as "Senator Bailout". So the likely scenario now is that Perry wins the primary.

If Sen Hutchison wins the primary, she'd resign then. This was always the smarter thing to do, given the stack of important issues facing the U.S. Senate right now.

This is an UN-bombshell because so many of the potential dominoes will STOP falling. It means the GOP statewide slate is a stack of incumbents - Lt Gov David Dewhurst, Combs, Texas Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, AG Greg Abbott, Railroad Commissioner Victor Carillo, etc. It also mean ambitions deferred for folks like Ted Cruz and Michael Williams. Never fear, both men are the future of the Texas Republican party, and they both deserve a promotion; they''ll just have to get the other folks out of the way next time.

The real losers here are the Democrats, who might have gleaned some advantage from additional GOP fratricide and were angling for a US Senate race. The Democrats could try to flood the GOP primary and vote for KBH just to get another Senate race going. Will it happen? Not in my crystal ball. Perry ekes out a victory, faces a second-tier Democrat (perhaps even ... KINKY?!?) and wins another term to become Texas' longest-serving Governor.

... and KBH stays in DC until 2012.

UPDATE: KBH says she will definitely will resign after the primary, win or lose hmmmm, I'll believe it when I see it. But if she does - Michael Williams for U.S. Senate!

Perry and KBH nearly tied in primary poll

Perry and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison nearly tied in primary race:

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey shows Perry attracting 42% of the vote while Hutchison earns 38%. Seven percent (7%) say they’d like to vote for somebody else and 13% are undecided.
Perry leads by 15 percentage points among conservative voters but Hutchison leads by 35 points among the moderates.

Perry has the edge with his conservative base lead. The 7% someone else candidate in the race is Debra Medina.

How to Stop “The Perfect Storm”

“The Perfect Storm”

— By Patrick O’Grady, Former CTRA President, Former Precinct Chair, Author of the 2000 SBOE Redistricting Plan

Reasons why we must stop “The Perfect storm”

In the Spring and Summer 2001, I designed the SBOE redistricting plan, at the behest of Vance and “Tincy” Miller. There was little doubt that the Texas Legislature was too concerned with their own hides. The SBOE plan would have been thrown into court if someone did not step up and complete it. I was hired based on my previous work with Mr. Richard Ford, President of Heritage Alliance (formerly the Free Enterprise Foundation), on Texas House and Senate plans which we provided to each member of the Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB).

The Senate, and House Plans, and the U.S. Congressional redistricting plan were receiving a lot of publicity. The Democrats decided to leave the state in protest, not once, but twice, to make sure the Republicans could not pass their plans due to a lack of a quorum to conduct business. The Senators chose the cushy confines of Albuquerque NM and the poor Reps had to settle for Ardmore, OK. Despite all of the grandstanding and vitriol, the real reason for the childish games was because the Dems remembered what they had done to the Reps in 1990 and knew “payback” was coming.

In 2011, the U.S. Congressional districts, the Texas Senate districts, the Texas House districts, and the SBOE districts will be redrawn. The party that controls the Texas Legislature will be responsible for the task of redesigning the Texas districts. It is possible that Texas will receive an additional 3-4 U.S. Congressional seats based on Texas population growth, and the loss of population by other states. This is part of the reapportionment done by the federal government based on the 2010 census.

Control of the Texas Legislature (both the House and the Senate) are critical, since well done redistricting plans can literally ensure a majority for at least a decade, and lead to another redistricting plan after the 2020 census.

When I designed the 2000 SBOE districts, it was done with the intent of maintaining the 10-5 Republican advantage specified by Mr. Vance Miller. With very few changes the plan could very easily have created an 8-7 Democrat advantage, and a couple more larger changes could lead to a 9-6 Democrat advantage. For that reason, the political party responsible for redistricting in 2011 will be at a great advantage to create districts which will be solidly in their control through the 2020 census.

I am also well aware that the Obama Administration is doing everything in its power to help the GOP win more federal seats, but this may or may not carry over to our State Legislature races. I would recommend that we not rely on the Democrats “shooting themselves in the foot.”

Also, a recent opinion from the SCOTUS (Bartlett V. Strickland) has helped with some previous redistricting problems, but if the Republicans are not in control of the Texas legislature, the ruling will not matter.

The Perfect Storm

There’s a perfect storm abrewin’, which could relegate the GOP to another decade, possibly two decades, wandering in the wilderness.

After many years of involvement in several campaigns and local politics as a precinct chair, I have been quite content to do analyses to determine what went right (or wrong) after the fact. While 20/20 hindsight is, in some cases, helpful in future campaigns, I have never attempted to prognosticate about future campaigns or even the future of the Republican Party, but several recent occurrences have made it abundantly clear that the Conservative movement, and by default the Republican Party is in dire straights.

I am convinced that the party has left me and is attempting to regain those conservatives who, like me, are conservatives first, and therefore members of the Republican Party. In 2006 and again in 2008, the GOP has proven that the upper echelon of “power brokers” will select who our nominees will be before the Primary Election. Their use of considerable amounts of money and lobbyist influence, are two of the reasons why incumbents very seldom lose. This business-as-usual attitude with only slight deference to the grass roots (who make or break the party) is at the root of the problem. Past mistakes are easy to see and analyze, but without some proactive efforts by grass roots leaders, the upcoming “perfect storm” will re-make the GOP into the minority party in Texas for 10-20 years.

The perfect storm is composed of four (4) problems that will unite and hand control of Texas Politics to the Democrats for the next two decades. These four storms are: 1) Straus, 2) Kay Baby vs. King Rick, 3) Poor Primary choices, and 4) Lack of Leadership.

I.

Problem one is Texas Speaker of the House Joe Straus, and the method of how he was selected and his actions since being selected. According to the Austin American Statesman in an article on January 3, 2009

House members had been anticipating Friday's meeting of the 11 ABC Republicans to give direction to the speaker's race.

Ten of the lawmakers met at the Tarrytown home of Rep. Byron Cook of Corsicana, for more than two hours.

Rep. Rob Eissler of The Woodlands was on the phone and a webcam. Reps. Burt Solomons of Carrollton and Ed Kuempel of Seguin were thought to be front-runners, but after three ballots, the less-experienced Straus won the support of his colleagues.

Except for Eissler and Rep. Delwin Jones of Lubbock , who left early, the group emerged together to announce their choice. They all emphasized Straus' GOP credentials and his ability to unify the House.

So we know of 6 of the 11 GOP members (ABC is Anybody But Craddick and I’m sure someone knows all 11 names, but I am not privy to that information) who decided that they had the right to decide, with the democrat party, who would be the next Texas Speaker of the House. (By the way, they were only following the example of our national GOP members who like to create small groups to undercut the real leaders of the party.

These eleven decided that it was their right to help the democrats get rid of Speaker Craddick. In doing so they emboldened the democrats, and through their efforts and the thanks of Joe Straus the democrats were rewarded with plumb committee assignments. Rep. Ken Paxton (R-McKinney) confirmed Straus’ methodology in an article published by the McKinney Courier Gazette newspaper on February 19, 2009:

Paxton also characterized Straus’ choice in committee posts as “rewards” for helping him take the House Speaker seat away from Craddick.

“A deal was cut between 64 or 65 Democrats and 11 or 12 Republicans, so when he comes in as speaker who he was elected by that group of 64-65 Democrats, when he is choosing committees, he rewarded more Democrats and rewarded 12 or however remaining Republicans. The other 50 or 60, for the most part, were left to getting good spots by seniority. I guess a few Republicans did OK under that scenario that didn’t do so well under the previous Republican speaker, and the Democrats did much better and that group of 11 Republicans.”

This action gave the democrats precisely what they wanted, i.e., the “power” to start the transformation of the political climate in Texas, so that they can take the house, and might (though definitely a long shot) retake the Texas Senate in 2010, just in time for redistricting based on the 2010 census.

Any Republican who would give Jim Dunnam a chairmanship has no clue about who his friends and enemies are. Even the most casual observer has seen the games that Dunnam has been playing to try to regain control of the house by 2010. Mr. Straus may be a nice guy, but he is a political idiot (yes, you may attribute that to me). Goodbye one-term speaker Straus!!

[Note: In the interests of full disclosure, I should state that while I was working on the SBOE redistricting plan in 2001, I was directed to Rep. Dunnam as the point of contact for the Democrat Party. Everything I saw and heard from his staff was “ALL POLITICS, ALL THE TIME”. There was very little, if any, policy discussion.]

II.

The second problem is the upcoming Primary contest for our Governor nominee, which I call Kay Baby vs. King Rick. I know that both are strong Republicans who can support the majority of our state platform, but we all know that there are weaknesses for both, and my fervent hope is that a strong Conservative will step forward to try to wrestle control away from both of them.

Senator Hutchison’s pro-choice views are well known throughout the “social conservative” community in Texas. If she is our nominee, the values voters will most likely stay home, or at the very least NOT support her. This by itself would almost guarantee the Democrat nominee the governorship. But coupled with other factors in this perfect storm, which will further demoralize the base, the governorship could easily be lost to, not won by, the Democrats.

Rick Perry has been a good governor and a strong conservative. While the values voters have occasionally disagreed with him, for the most part he has been a rallying point for social issues. The millstone which he will drag to the next election is his length of service. He is already the longest serving Texas Governor since we gave up our republic to become a state.

The voters can see what longevity does to our republican form of government, by looking to Washington, D.C. and projecting that scene on our Austin government. The longer a person sits in his/her comfy power seat, the less likely they are to listen to their constituents - they become so much smarter than the peons who elect them. We see this mentality daily from our elected reps, including supposedly strong conservatives. This longevity also blocks new people with new ideas from attempting to change the status quo. Incumbents are very rarely defeated, because once elected you acquire the resources to keep getting elected.

I have heard from a few conservatives in my precinct that we don’t want a King, who rules for life, and Governor Perry needs to go back to his ranch and find something else to do than rule forever as Texas Governor.

The Kay Baby vs. King Rick portion of this perfect storm will have the same effect (only inversely) as the top of the ticket (Obama vs. McCain ) had in the 2008 Presidential election. The bottom of the ticket will be severely hurt because values voters will, most likely, not show up, and the Democrat voters will be emboldened and come out and vote a straight party ticket, a la OBAMA ’08. The result will be losses at all levels including the state reps and state senators.

III.

The third issue, which will collide with the others to form a perfect storm, is the GOP Primary choices. It is my contention that strong fiscal AND social conservatives generate excitement in the base, and help to drive up the voting turnout. A lack of strong conservatives on the ticket will not excite the base, and will reinforce other reasons for the values voters to dismiss the GOP Primary, and hence will allow more RINOs to be on the November ballot. And the cycle will repeat itself in the General Elections in 2010.

A lack of efforts by the grass roots of the party, coupled with the strength of the power brokers, and the currying of favor of the power brokers by incumbent RINOs make it almost impossible to defeat an incumbent. If the Texas State GOP (RPT) and the county republican parties do not stand up for conservative values and take on the incumbent RINOs, this small problem will be compounded in the perfect storm in 2010.

[Note: While I will not go into great detail, the Libertarians generally take votes from conservatives and not liberals in General Elections. This small 3-5% loss of votes for the GOP candidate in November will play a part of the perfect storm, but it is beyond the control of the RPT and County Parties. Even Ronald Reagan acknowledged this when he said: “I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism. I think conservatism is really a misnomer, just as liberalism is a misnomer for the liberals...The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom, and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is.” The problem can probably be addressed within the context of President Reagan’s thoughts, but a solid conservative may be able to recoup some of the projected vote loss by employing a solid campaign strategy emphasizing how much we have in common with libertarians.]

IV.

The last problem for conservatives, and thereby the GOP, in 2010 will be a lack of leaders. Talking the talk is one thing, but walking the walk is what is truly needed. Some years back the RPT Chairman attempted to take a stand against a RINO, and she was met with a silence from those who should have stood by her side.

When, and IF, we have party leaders speak up against RINOs who do not support the platform (which BTW is crafted by the grass roots, and not the power brokers) there should follow a chorus of voices that echo the same stance. It needs to be loud enough to send a clear message to the power brokers that if a candidate can not follow the game plan that the party grass roots crafted, the party, and its voters, will not show up in November.

As can be seen by this discussion, the leaders who are failing are at all levels. Lower level leaders, mid-level leaders, Party Chairmen, SREC members, Representatives (State and Federal), Senators (State and Federal), and State-wide office holders MUST take a stand to change the status quo, despite the advice from overpaid campaign managers and strategists. The status quo is what the Democrats are hoping for in 2010.

So now that you have read this far, so what? The perfect storm will only be for one cycle, and the GOP can regain control in 2012, or 2014…right?

The short answer is NO! In the 82nd Legislative session, the majority party will be redistricting the state of Texas for every U.S. Congressman (most likely +3 or 4 more), for every State Representative, every State Senator, and every SBOE member. That plan will be in effect for at least a decade (until the 2020 census) ,and if done well enough to ensure a majority in 2020, the next redistricting plan will be good for another decade.

Previous history has shown us that the Democrats are very good at ”packing“ Republican Districts and craftily carving out enough Democrat districts to maintain their majority for AT LEAST a decade. The Republican majority failed to accomplish the same results in 2001, but that’s another lengthy article. Because of my experience in one of the redistricting efforts in 2001, trust me when I say that whoever controls the redistricting process (and it is a convoluted process), will control for the next decade (unless the same Republicans who failed in 2001 are given the task again). And all indicators of the “Perfect Storm” abrewin’ are that Texas will become a Democrat state once again, for the next two decades.
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Patrick O’Grady is a past President of the Central Texas Republican Assembly (CTRA) , a former Travis County Republican Party Precinct Chair, and the author of the 2000 SBOE Redistricting Plan.