Sunday, January 11, 2009

Obama's Team Sandbags the Jobs Numbers

Now the mystery of that weird concept of Obama promises of "saving jobs" is revealed!

Obama's "Keynesianism on crack" plan 'saves jobs' by Sandbagging the employment numbers. They say that by Q4 2010 we have two scenarios:
Without Stimulus $11,770 GDP 133,876,000 Payroll Employment
With Stimulus $12,203 GDP 137,550,000 Payroll Employment
Effect of Package Increase GDP by 3.7% Increase jobs by 3,675,000

I say: Look at the numbers Obama is inheriting. Q3 2008 total employment number was 137,331,000. And due to job losses that were huge in the last quarter, it dropped to 135,489,000 in December. See the jobs report. What they are claiming is that with Obama's plan, the total employment numbers will be no higher than they were in Q3 2008. This is not 'creating' any net new jobs, this is merely treading water. They are further making the very dubious claim that the economy, if left to its own devices without huge Government deficits, would in 2010 have 4 million fewer jobs than in 2008. When in the last 60 years did that happen? Never! Obama is sandbagging the numbers, concocting an alternative scenario that is nothing more than a fearful spectre, so that zero net job creation will still be 'saving jobs'.

Maybe Obama knows about the history with FDR and the fact that you do not get big job creation from boondoggle spending: "Nearly a decade of then-unprecedented increases in federal spending on public relief and public works projects never managed during the Depression to lower the unemployment rate into single digits or restore our gross domestic product (GDP) to the level it had achieved in 1929."

I wrote in a previous article that Obama needed a 'worse alternative' so that he could claim credit for the economic recovery even if his plans actually didn't do any good at all for the economy. His team has kindly showed their hand, with numbers that make plain the Obama economy will be mediocre, and Obama will still want to 'take credit' not for creating any real jobs but for 'saving us' from unrealistic fearmongering projections of huge job losses that will never be.

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