Sunday, January 18, 2009

Risk is a Four-letter Word, pt 2

Risk and the Recovery, a good explanation of what went wrong in banking. Calculated Risk blog shows that many of the financial panic numbers are easing - TED spread is down under 1, for example, 3-mo LIBOR is at 1.1%. On the other hand, Industrial output fell at an 11.5% rate in the fourth quarter, so even as financial factors stabilize, the recession feeds on itself.

if you are looking for good news, some leading indicators are starting to turn.

I share stimulus thoughts on Keynes:

When we look back in 2012 at what was done in 2009, we wont care if the Q4 2009 numbers were this or that, we WILL care if we are saddled with an extra trillion of foriegn debt that we can't easily pay back, suffering under subpar growth because our deficits and inflationary policies got out of hand and we had to 'fix' that with high-tax high-interest-rate stagflation-era policies. ... Keynes was wrong. In the long run we aren't dead, in the long run we look back, older and wiser, and say: "What the hell were we THINKING?!?"

No comments: