Post-Election Huddle - What Happened
This election drubbing for Republicans is a learning experience in the best and worst sense of the word. The losses that the Republicans had down the ballot for the most part started from the top, so it's wise to focus on the McCain/Palin v Obama/Biden race. To put it another way, Obama had coattails. Here's how the popular vote shifted from 2004 to 2008 (preliminary 2008 numbers, they may shift):
| Year | Total | Republicans | Democrats |
| 2008 | 118,226,000 | 55,543000 | 62,683,000 |
| 2004 | 121,068,000 | 62,040,000 | 59,028,000 |
| Totals | -2,842,000 | -6,497,000 | 3,655,000 |
As part of the "What happened and why" we have to consider these factors:
- The Bush legacy. How Bush performed in office - the war against terror, the economy, etc., and how it was perceived. Bush was in the past year not very popular, in a large part due to his own base having a disappointed view of him, and that translating into a drag on the ticket. It's genesis was from Katrina, Harriet Miers, Iraq war fatigue, immigration, conservative issues with spending, etc. Note to next GOP President (whenever that comes): Dont screw up a war; Dont spend like drunken sailor; Dont PO your base; Dont let a financial crisis hit 6 weeks before an election on your watch.
- How the Republicans in power have met or not met their stated agenda items. Did we have 'agenda exhaustion' or are there agenda items left undone? A lot is tied to #1, and the view from conservatives' perspective is that Republicans didn't govern as conservatively as they promised. The faultlines are particularly sharp on elites-vs-populists items like immigration, .
- John McCain - the candidate and the campaign, and Sarah Palin. I commented on a forum to this effect - "I dont think critiquing McCain would help. Given his money disadvantage and the media bias, he ran as good a campaign as you could expect. OTOH, there were serious technology deficiencies on MCCain side and advantages on Obama side that need to be corrected." I got this reply:
"McCain ran a terrible campaign. I can personally attest to that having been a volunteer for his campaign in VA makiing telephone calls and handing out sample ballots. The Obama campaign was much more organized and prepared. I can't tell you how many times this campaign resembled the Keystone cops. We didn't have poll watchers or a presence in many places. And there was no cohesive message. Again, Obama, his experience and his associations, should have been the issue and focus from day one. In many respects, the issues were tangential. And because McCain was the candidate we couldn't go after Obama on immigration issues such as amnesty, drivers licenses, etc. and global warming. Immigration was, and continues to be a big issue in NoVA. Coal is big in SW VA. And McCain has a difficult time in debating. He is not quick on his feet." In the end, the lack of a clear message - here's why you need to vote for me and run screaming away from the other guy - doomed McCain. "Country First" was a great slogan, but it somehow got lost in the muddle of the focus on the economy, and meanwhile, Obama stuck to his "Me=change, McCain=Bush" simplistic but consistent message. - The strengths and weaknesses of Obama and the Democrat lineup. $600 million dollars and a friendly media covers up many sins. Obama was able to take advantage of his unique background (that made him a 'celeb' candidate that few first term Senators could achieve) and suffer few if any negative consequences for having radical associations. This is partly due to McCain's reticence to press the Rev Wright issue home. But a more important lacking element was Obama's left-liberal views on social issues - not put on the table.
"With all due respect to Sen. McCain for his service above and beyond the call of duty to his country, he represents the GOP's past. He is well known for standing up for what he believes is right, but sometimes what he believes is best turns out to be wrong. He missed a golden opportunity of his own when he reacted to the financial storm that hit this county. Had he stood up against the taxpayer-funded bailout of the same financial houses which were part and parcel of the problem, he would have demonstrated that he really is the maverick he never failed to tell us he was. But he didn't. He opted instead for an unprecedented intrusion by the federal government into the private sector. That may well have cost him the election. John McCain, God bless him, is the Republican Party's failed past. Young Turks such as Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin and LtC. Allen West aret its future." - Josh Painter, RedStateNow that the election is done, I'd like to analyze the challenges that we face on four levels:
- The nuts-and-bolts election-level. What did the Democrats do better in candidates, campaigns, technology, outreach, organization, GOTV, messaging etc. in appealing to voters and getting them to the polls? What should we emulate or not?
- The challenge in the immediate political future of how to leverage what little influence the conservative and Republican side has, and how to defeat the threats they will pose to freedom. How to "Stop Obama's Socialism", and stopping the "Fairness Doctrine".
- The challenge of rebuilding the Republican party, improving the brand, and getting ready for the next election cycles. How do we fix what's wrong with the party?
- The challenge to the conservative movement and to conservatives in the grassroots, in the media, in the think tanks. We will have to rethink - what part of the agenda is still viable? We even have contenders for redefining what consevatism is, as well as the Reagan stalwarts who want the tried and true formula.
